Military Decision Making Process (MDMP)

Name: __________________________________ Date: __________________

Instructions: This Military Decision Making Process (MDMP) essay is worth 50% of your overall C600 grade. Specifically, this essay has seven requirements for you to apply the MDMP to a tactical scenario.

Overview: In Leavenworth Papers #11 “Rangers: Selected Combat Operations in World War II,” Dr. Michael J. King notes that “The rescue of 511 American and Allied prisoners from a Japanese POW compound near Cabanatuan in the Philippines by elements of the 6th Ranger

Battalion, reinforced by Alamo Scouts and Filipino guerrillas, was the most complex operation that Rangers conducted during World War II. It was also one of the most successful.”

That rescue has been chronicled in the 2005 movie The Great Raid and several books including Hour of Redemption by Forrest Bryant Johnson, The Ghost Soldiers by Hampton Sides, and is the focus of Chapter 6 of King’s work. Although the movie and other references may help you understand the scenario more, this exam is based solely on the information provided in King’s work.

Read Chapter 6 “Cabanatuan” of Leavenworth Papers #11 by Dr. Michael J King and then provide your responses to the seven requirements which begin on the next page. If you state information from the reading or doctrinal references as part of your answer, you must give a citation in accordance with ST 22-2.

Mission Analysis: Through mission analysis, the commander and staff should understand the problem and the resources available to solve that problem. Each staff member is responsible for conducting his own running (staff) estimate that provides very detailed information within his area of responsibility. The staff then analyzes that information and synthesizes (packages) it into the mission analysis brief. The essence of staff work involves distilling mountains of information into nuggets of knowledge. One method through which staff officers do this is to process the facts (or WHAT) into information (by asking SO WHAT?), analyze the information to increase knowledge (by asking WHICH MEANS?), and apply judgment to gain an understanding (by asking THEREFORE?) For example:

WHAT: we know that the POW Camp at Cabanatuan houses approximately 500 POWs, many of whom were survivors of the Bataan Death March three years prior.

SO WHAT: Many of those POWs will be so ill (as a result of malnutrition, disease, forced labor or torture), that they will not be able to walk back to Guimba

WHICH MEANS: We must find another way to get them back

THEREFORE: We will determine if the locals can provide transportation

The C411 Problem Framing Student Aid contains additional information about mission analysis and problem framing

REQUIREMENT #1 (10 Points. Approximately two double-spaced pages)

You are the S-3 of the 6^th Ranger Battalion conducting mission analysis on 27 January 1945 at the Ranger base camp at Calasiao on the Lingayen Gulf. Provide a complete analysis (running estimate) of time and distance including, but not limited to:

Time available to conduct the operation before the Japanese decide to move or murder the POWS
the one-third/ two-thirds rule,
maintaining secrecy in varied terrain during day and night operations,
the anticipated distances covered by, time available to, and rates of movement for:
- the Ranger advance to the POW Camp
- the Rangers movement back towards the 6^th Army lines with POWs and carabao carts
- 6^th Army’s advance and anticipated link-up with the Rangers and POWs,
- Japanese counterattacks.

REQUIREMENT #2 (10 Points. Approximately one-half of a double-spaced page)

Articulate LTC Mucci’s problem including at least one critical aspect, critical factor, or critical condition for each mission variable.

REQUIREMENT #3 (10 Points. Approximately one double-spaced page)

While developing his commander’s estimate, LTC Mucci brainstormed three different words to use for his task in the mission statement: Liberate, Raid, Secure. Citing your references, provide a dictionary or doctrinal definition for each, and then select and justify which one to include in your mission statement.

COA Development: ATTP 5-0.1 states that “A COA is a broad solution to an identified problem.” Serving initially as lead planner, Captain Robert Prince developed a broad plan which included a truck movement, dismounted infiltration, flawless actions at the POW camp, and an elaborate exfiltration. With virtually no room for error, CPT Prince refined and rehearsed the plan to resource his decisive efforts, nest the shaping efforts, and eliminate wasted efforts. As a result, every Ranger, Alamo Scout and Guerrilla in every platoon and special element contributed to the success of the mission.

REQUIREMENT #4 (30 Points total. 6 Points each. One to two double-spaced pages. See example response. You must write in sentences rather than bulletized form.)

SELECT FIVE OF THE EIGHT ELEMENTS FROM THE LIST BELOW.

For each element selected, list the most important contribution (TASK) do you need to specify tactical mission task? that it made during the operation, explain why that contribution was needed (PURPOSE) and explain how that contribution was synchronized with at least one other action that preceded, followed or occurred concurrent with it. For example, the American airplane disrupted (Task) the Japanese Guards so that the rangers could crawl close to the POW camp undetected (Purpose). The plane flew over the camp “at 1840, three-quarters of an hour before the attack was to begin,” (King p 64) while the rangers were crossing the open field outside of the POW Camp.

The Filipino Guerrillas
The Alamo Scouts
1^st Platoon Charlie Company
2^nd Platoon Charlie Company
2^nd Platoon Foxtrot Company
The Filipino Civilians
The Radio Team in Guimba
The 6^th US Army

Commander’s Critical Information Requirements: Commanders use information and judgment to make decisions. In many instances, several pieces of information contribute to one decision. In those instances, the commander may arrange the information in an IF, AND/OR, THEN sequence, illustrated by this simple example:

IF my team is still in the playoff hunt

AND my brother can purchase game tickets

AND the winter roads are clear enough to drive

OR I can afford train tickets

THEN I will go to the last regular season game

REQUIREMENT #5 (10 Points. Approximately one-half of a double-spaced page)

Construct a logical IF, AND/OR, THEN sequence justifying LTC Mucci’s decision to attack on 30 January.

REQUIREMENT #6 (10 Points. Approximately one-half of a double-spaced page)

Explain why LTC Mucci’s decision on the 30^th was different than his decision on 29 January when he decided to delay for 24 hours.

COA Analysis: According to ATTP 5-0.1 “War-gaming is a disciplined process, with rules and steps that attempt to visualize the flow of the operation, given the force’s strengths and dispositions, enemy’s capabilities and possible COAs, impact and requirements of civilians in the AO, and other aspects of the situation.” It further states that “COA analysis enables commanders and staffs to identify difficulties or coordination problems as well as probable consequences of planned actions for each COA being considered. It helps them think through the tentative plan. COA analysis may require commanders and staffs to revisit parts of a COA as discrepancies arise. COA analysis not only appraises the quality of each COA but also uncovers potential execution problems, decisions, and contingencies. In addition, COA analysis influences how commanders and staffs understand a problem and may require the planning process to restart.”

REQUIREMENT #7 (20 Points. One to two double-spaced pages)

On 27 January, while the Rangers are still in their base camp planning and preparing for their mission, LTC Mucci approaches you and says: “I’m very concerned the locals may not be able to provide enough carts to move the POWs back to Guimba. Please wargame these three contingencies and give me your recommendation and rationale.”

Continue to move toward Guimba, recognizing that movement will be slow.
Stay in the camp, defend it, and ensure 6^th Army has its link-up force moving toward us quickly.
Move outside the camp to the first concealed location, defend it, and ensure 6^th Army has its link-up force moving toward us quickly.