The case of Shell company, the oil giant and pioneer of scenario planning, is given in the link- :http://eds.b.ebscohost.com.ezproxy.myucwest.ca/eds/pdfviewer/pdfviewer?vid=1&sid=5d76d074-702b-4411-81d3-ca339c36b9ed%40sessionmgr198&hid=121 and also in the word version and graphics in separate file in this forum in case you cannot access the EBSCO link.
This gives details regarding the history and development of their planning process through use of this technique. Shell is recognized as pioneer organization to use this scenario planning technique in a big way for developing their strategy which has guided their business over few decades.
Please study the document and give your response to the following :-
- Please find out the major milestones in the development stages of scenario planning
- Analyze the background, factors considered, impacts expected to find out the underlying reasons for adopting scenario planning in place of single forecast used earlier by Shell managers
- What roles were played by new economic tools in financial planning to tackle uncertain world which emerged over the years? Also give an account of the uncertainties which required different ways to manage and triggered the concept of scenario planning.
- How future scenario of unpredictability was built into Shell planning for business investment with real options in financial evaluation while considering various factors beyond company’s control demand
- Give an account of changes enumerated in the study regarding oil and gas prices, demand-supply situation, major shift to clean energy source impacting oil business
- “An important risk companies face is that major shifts in the business environment (e.g., due to changes in the geopolitical landscape, government policies, and industry structure) can make whole investment strategies obsolete.” Can you give 3 important examples which are making decision making in Canadian business more unpredictable in recent years
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