After reading the above documents on ethics and statistic describes what may be some of the ethical problems in statistics and how we can identify falsehoods in statistical reports. maximum 3 paragraphs.
Roundtable on “Ethics and Statistics: The Case INDEC”
Roundtable on “Ethics and Statistics: The Case INDEC” The December 14, 2009 the round table was held whose announcement can be seen in the following document. The intervention of the President of the SAE is in the in the following document. SAE action in defense of ethics and transparency of official statistics has been supported by the International Statistical Institute (ISI), which is in the siguiente documento, the American Statistical Association (ASA), which is in the siguiente documento, and Société Française de Statistique found in the siguiente documento.
Ethics and Statistics: For the INDEC
December 14, 2009 – University of Belgrano
Lavalle Auditorium – 485 Lavalle – Buenos Aires
Herbert George Wells, English writer, noted novelist and philosopher, famous for
his science fiction novels, which is considered, along with Jules Verne, one of his
precursors, who lived between 1866 and 1946, said: “The thought Statistical reach
be so necessary to be a responsible citizen as the ability to read and write. ”
Moreover, Francis Galton, who was born in 1822 and died 1911.
British explorer and scientist with a broad spectrum of interests: psychology,
biology, technology, geography, statistics, meteorology. Cousin of Charles Darwin.
He did most of the research on their own and only at the age of 87 years
He received a formal knighted granted recognition. Their contributions
Statistics are most important: using linear regression; pioneered the use
normal distribution; He invented the Quincunx machine, an instrument to demonstrate
the law of error and the normal distribution; discovered distribution properties
bivariate normal and its relationship to regression analysis; in 1888 introduced the
concept of correlation, said: “I have to write about a big issue (the
Statistics), but strongly I feel my literary failure to do so
intelligible without sacrificing accuracy and truthfulness “.
These and many other examples show that highly educated people
Statistics intellectual regarded the one hand, as an essential part
in civic and democratic life of any society. Leading to the need for
we all, as members of civil society, have a “culture Statistics”
conveniently usufruct right for the information provided. for another side, it is also considered an area whose technical content should be developed by those who had achieved an appropriate training so that the information reaching civil society to be accessible in his performance, precise in its judgments and truthful in their numbers. 2The misinform, using statistical material could call handling statistics and summing it up in one word (although not very good)estadisticulación.Often the process of lying with statistics indicates that such operationsThey are the product of someone’s desire to move to deception. Now a memberof the American Statistical Association (ASA) said that most of the time itIt is not fraud, but of incompetence. Perhaps there is some truth in that statement, but I do not think this course (the incompetence) is less offensivefraud to the statisticians. Possibly much important to note that the distortion of statistical data andhandling for a particular purpose, they are not always the work of theProfessional Statistics. What comes out full of virtues of the table expert can be changed, exaggerated, oversimplified and distorted to be taken by other people
It whoever the culprit in a particular case, it is difficult to attribute it to hisinnocent disability. False graphics that appear in magazines and newspapers aresensational for his exaggeration, and rarely minimize anything. Those withstatistical arguments in favor of industrial growth, the lack of inflation, etc.,rarely, as I have experienced, they give workers or the public consumerinformation that improves the facts in their sectors; generally still presentworse for them.While the errors are all a part, it is not easy to attribute to the lack ofknowledge or to chance. On the contrary, obviously they have a purposeIt is not to give to those who must receive accurate information.The fact is that, despite its mathematical basis, the statistics are as much aart as a science. Many manipulations are possible and even misrepresentationswithin the limits of their jurisdiction. Often, the statistician shouldchoose between different methods and find the one that should be used to represent the facts,what continues to be a subjective process. However, in specific situations,as in the case of official statistics, there are methods that have been taken as theSuitable for a number of conventions (of experts, international, etc.) andensure uniformity of results, making comparisons and intertemporalspace. Any changes should be in accordance with technical methodologies and 3scientifically accepted and never following the whims of some circumstantial
people or sectors.Now it would be interesting to explain how it should look a false statistic, andunmask; and more importantly, how to recognize the useful data and some to thetide of fraud which we face.Not all statistical information that comes to our hands canchecked security or chemical analysis is done in a laboratoryto assess metals. But we can sift the information represented sievefive very simple questions. Finding the answers to avoid giving truthful lmany things that are not.Question 1: Who says?The first thing to look at is in that sense can be influenced theInformation: The laboratory needs to show something for the benefit of a theory,a reputation or a fee; newspaper whose purpose is to publish goodArticle; workers and employers to discuss a wage increase. We mustsearch conscious influence. The method may be the distortion of a factdirectly, or an ambiguous claim equally suited for the purpose to bewant and whose guilt can not be proved. It may be a selection offavorable data suppression unfavorable. Units may be misleadingmeasurement, as when it takes a year for a comparison and passed a yearfavorable to another. An inadequate measure may be used; average when themedian is much more informative (perhaps too informative!), covering thetrick with the word “average” without qualification.We must look carefully at the conscious or unconscious influence that tendsto change the numbers and information. In figures and predictions of manyeconomists and experts are usually filtered influencing factors leading to producecurious results. For example, blithely dismiss disorderseconomic structure and all kinds of tests are given for statistically justifiedshow that we can be in a stream of prosperity.Perhaps a second inspection to find out who is saying takes. 4Question 2: How do you know?On one occasion a study was conducted to companies to see if they hadincreased product prices or not. Of 169 companies that responded, 108They said they had not raised prices and 61 had increased yes. As well,we have about two-thirds of companies are not increasingprices and only a third do. And it happens in many cases that’s whatreports. But digging a little more, it turned out that the questionnaire had been sent to1,200 major companies. They said only 169, which is approximately14%. The remaining 86% had no interest in informing the public ifprices up or not.
Who reported very favorably saw the results, butHe had done very little to brag about. In fact, 1,200 companieswere sampled and should take part in the survey, 9% said that they hadraised prices 5% yes they had high and 86% did not responda. Respondents represent a very small proportion of the sample andhopefully an influencer. In these cases we should look for cluesindicative of a sample is influenced: which is chosen soinadequate or like this that is selected herself. Let us questionIs it large enough sample to reach any valid conclusion?The same is true when a correlation is reported: islarge enough sample to mean anything? Are there enough casesgive meaning?Question 3: What is missing?Not always will give the number of cases. The absence of this figure, particularlywhen the source of information is an interested party, is sufficient to suspect theset. Nor should it be taken too seriously a correlation that is presentno measure of reliability (probable error, standard deviation). Let us watch theaverages whose variety is not specified, on issues for which it can be expected that the 5thmean and median are to differ materially. Let us beware of percentageswhen we are not told the total on which they were taken.Sometimes percentages are mentioned, omitting the numeric base material.For example, a company reported that 33 1/3% of the women in his plantworkers were married to members of the management staff. Given the figuresGross becomes clearer picture: when the report there were only three womenworkers on the ground and one of them was married to a manager !!If we are faced with an index, we ask what is missing. Maybe it’s the base,chosen in order to distort the result. Sometimes lack the determining factorchange, for example when reporting an increase in businessdue to increases in sales of April compared to the same month of the yearabove. But what really is omitting is the detail that in the year in questionEaster was in April and the previous year was in March.Question 4: TURN SOMEONE GAVE SOME INFORMATION?When checking a statistic, look for the possible trend that someoneare entered in the totals or conclusions. It often givesknow one thing over another.When checking an increase in the number of cases of some disease notalways it means increased virulence thereof. The victory of a candidate on asmall district has no value for a public inquiry of greater scope. Areadership express preference for international news items,
does not mean you reading this article are not published.Once, in one country, it was reported that there had been a returnthe field because the last census had been detected more than half a million farmsas above. What really happened was that the definition of farm had changed from one census to another.The population of an area of China was 29 million. Five years more afternoon reached 105 million. Very little of this increase was real. The firstcensus was for taxes and the second for the fight against hunger. 6Question 5: Does it make sense?This question is especially relevant when the claim is based on aunproven assumption. There is a formula developed amenity reading by Rudolf Flesch. This is to measure the readability of a prose passage through simple goals such as the length of words and phrases and criteria.Like all ideas that tend to reduce the imponderable numbers and substitutetrial mathematics, this is striking to say the least. At leastIt caught the attention of who they used it since, when applied in some texts it turned outthe “Tale of Sleeping Beauty” was twice as difficult for the “Republic” ofPlato. Here is the story: the statistics are distorted in their ownnoses users. They published only because the magic of numbers overridescommon sense.Extrapolations are useful, particularly for the way predictionCall forecast trend. But in examining the figures or graphics derivativesthe same, it should be this one thing: the current trend may be a fact,but the future trend can only be predicted by a reasonable hypothesis aswhich it implies the statement that “whenever else remains the same …” and”Current trends continue …”. One way or another nothing stays the same, whatOtherwise, life would be too monotonous.With this I wanted to give a brief tour of some of the misrepresentationsFrequently in Statistics and present a set of basic questions tous to begin a process of acceptance of statistical information that canreach us. I think important to note that the book How to Lie withStatistics by Darrell Huff remains today a very enlightening workthese circumstances.It is evident that in each of the following considerations to the fiveabove questions could identify one or more difficulties, pressures andvicissitudes that through the INDEC, the National Statistical System and theOfficial statistics Argentinas. Statistical Society Argentina as notcan we remain indifferent to lies, concealment and deception to uswe subjected each report referred to an issue of Official Statistics. 7
Much less can we look away before the assassination to deny that
masses of people remain below the poverty line and poverty
since this is purely and simply condemn them to disappear for lack of resources
minimum, which ultimately would be violating the most basic of rights
Human: the Life. And His Holiness Pope Benedict XVI declared poverty
Argentina as “a scandal” and the spokesman said the National Bishops
bishops discussed the issue and will report on poverty, which for them is close
40% and the difference between the poorest and the richest “is unacceptable a
scandal. ” A similar situation occurs when assassination in some provinces
Argentina reports that “infant mortality has declined,” when what
actually happened it was a simple change of definition: passing many deaths
children to regard them as stillbirths. Is also concerned that distortions
Information leading to uncertainty discourages investment deteriorating all
economic and carrying us to be getting worse activity in terms of quality
life and, why not, to stability and political credibility.
Adapting some verses set Calle 13, Puerto Rico rappers,
we can say that “the INDEC statistics are dirty, but what happens is that the
they mind is flexible as a gymnast from Russia “.
It is unfortunate the capricious management is being done with the information
statistics of our national statistical system and the lack of a commitment
Statisticians call wanting Profession experts to provide their input to
to enhance the credibility of the information provided. Indeed, we are witnessing the call
economists, sociologists, and even veterinarians to “give their opinion
technical “but virtually Statistical almost any profession. All of them
make, in the best case, a set of users of statistics, but under
no aspect can be considered as the experts in our area
knowledge. Hopefully this is reversed. In these cases we must note that the
Statistical Society Argentina is and will always be willing to make contributions
technical as may be required in an area of rigor and transparency.
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