Transportation Futures Exercise
Background
Understanding the direction of a market is a requirement of those aspiring to leadership in modern logistics companies. All too often, leaders do not effectively develop the “trend spotting” skills necessary to identify potential areas of disruption or innovation in their market. As a result, they limit their ability to grow and the impact they can make.
Purpose
The purpose of this exercise is guide the student in the process of evaluating a specific trends and developing a serious of viewpoints and ultimately a simple trend bridge. The successful student will capture the top 3 to 5 drivers of a chosen trend and then, using those drivers, be able to deterministically evaluate that trend to create a set of potential longer term outcomes that could ultimately be monitored and acted upon by a company.
For our purpose, this exercise will take the form of a set of answered essay questions along with a “bridge” diagram that shows how the identified drivers will shape a trend leading to a logical set of outcomes.
Instructions
1. Identify a trend that you would like to further research from the ones covered in class. These include:
a. Consumer Trends
i. Rise of the Global Middle Class
ii. Continued Aging of Global Population
b. Sustainability Options
i. Consumer Preference Toward Sustainability
ii. Freight Model Shift from Freight to Global Parcel
c. Technology Futures
i. 3D Printing
ii. Self-Driving Vehicles
2. Based on the trend you choose, answer the questions below in question order with answers appropriate to the question, i.e. lists of items or essay questions. Once complete, analyze the trends and the driver’s you’ve identified and create a graphical depiction of the “Trend Bridge” that shows the current market situation, the drivers, any innovations you identify and at least one major FUTURE outcome. You may use a fishbone diagram, free flow diagram, mind map, or any other diagrammatic approach you’d like with the understanding that the professor will grade this based on his ability to interpret the diagram so organization and content are critical to success.
3. Once complete, turn in the final product as a Microsoft WORD Document (graphic Embedded) no later than the due date in the syllabus.
Trend Exercise Questions, Document Format
General Instructions: Create a Word Document with the following information:
• Name, Class, and Date
• For Each Question, Copy the Question Below and then Answer in List, Paragraph / Essay Form
• There is no expectation of a specific exercise length. Use whatever length is needed to answer the question appropriately.
• Keep In Mind that although there are specific questions and responses, the student should treat this as an integrated appear and the format should take that of a paper rather than just a series of diagrams and questions answered.
Question 1: What are the Key Drivers that will Drive Change in the trend leading to the future innovation outcomes?
• To Answer: Simply provide a list of the 3 (minimum) to 5 (maximum) drivers
Question 2: Discuss each driver in depth sufficient to explain a) why it is a key driver, b) how the driver contributes to moving the trend forward, and c) what the GENERAL impacts of the driver on the trend will be.
• To Answer: Separate each driver into its own section and answer the question based on the above items.
Trend Bridge: Based on the analysis and implications of the drivers identified, form a graphical document that shows how the current state of the market, the drivers and their impacts, and time will lead to specific outcomes (good or bad). Form a conclusion on what the future will look like at a high level
Question 3: Based on all of the work done, come to a conclusion and write up a summary and conclusion paragraph. This should be at least 100 and not more than 500 words as a guideline
• To Answer: Create a summary paragraph that creates a supportable conclusion based on all the work and analysis done. Make it as compelling and factual as possible and create a compelling statement or conclusion that could be used, for instance, as a quote in an article about the trend.
Grading Rubric:
Category Grading
Not Present Needs Major Revision Meets Solid Strong
Points 1 2 3 4 5
Overall Paper Organization (Paper is not Disjointed)
Identifies and Defends Appropriate Drivers
Provides Driver Detail that Supports The Trend Case
Graphical Document is Easy to Understand and Complete
Graphical Document is Compelling
Summary and “Sound Bite” is Consistent with findings and compelling; the conclusion is reasonably correct
Grammar and Punctuation
Total Grade (35 Points Possible):
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