Final Memo

Final Memo

According to Lippit et al. (1985), leadership and vision are the successful drivers of change. As change agents, American Petroleum managers must create visions regarding the future, which are capable of focusing group energy. The vision should be comprehensive enough to direct attention on ways to bridge the gap to the future, as well as contrast what is to be accomplished. Change should be a core organizational value combined with consumer feedback, external feedback and internally developed organizational improvements. Change initiatives should be correlated to efforts of improving overall profitability and performance. Senior management’s commitment at the earliest stages of the process is critical. Understanding the variables that play key roles in managing the change process is significant and requires adequate time for implementation (Lippit 37).

Various aspects influence the global market that the organization wants to venture in. ant business is under the effect of sovereign risk and influence in the international market. Most CEOs think that their business is threatened of influenced by government sources. This is the concept of sovereign influence.

Distributive Politics

Traditionally, market and economics models utilize the equilibrium ideology. The assumption being that the players in the financial market revolve around two factors; External shock bombarding these markets in the shape of unsullied information on regulation change, business, technological advances, or political dealings. The quest for equilibrium in the financial markets is reliant on the fact that balance is often perturbed by these external factors. These models indicate that markets would presumably settle sturdily. Politics is concentred with distribution, while economics is inclined in multiplication. Therefore, market players who are moved to purpose by their desires to rationally or irrationally pursue their interests. These decisions by these key players result to bonds, stocks and other pawns in the market in question towards equilibrium. However, market participants ensure that fundamental values are more or less sustained through the process.

Decision tree

Critically, a general tendency of large market fluctuations has been observed and analyzed, of course absent excess volatility and apparent shock introduction into the picture. Mathematical regularities have been established to define and monitor market fluctuations occurring absent apparent volatility and external shock bombardment (D’hulst et al 39).

Evidently, the equilibrium model incongruities go beyond the aforementioned, in fact, enough to trigger the need to develop better models that look further than the equilibrium horizon. Models not restricted to external shocks and player decisions. Instead, models that amplify the internal dynamics of the market are brought into context. (Challet et al 52) stipulates that implementing two competitor tactical games allow players to revolutionize their strategies and ideas perpetually, to survive in the market framework. These external factors factor in the political risk involved in entering a new market. The company must be prepared to ensure that the unseen possible regulations and uncertainty does not impose challenge to the future of the organization. The decisions made should be analysed and evaluated to ensure that they do not bring the company down.

Regime forecast

The company needs to assess the political risk involved in venturing into new international markets. International markets can have diverse effects on the organization in case of adverse political failure of instability. The company can, however, determine the political future of country that they need to invest in through regime forecast. Regime forecast has been used to determine regime change and civil war correctly in the past by almost 80% accuracy. Evaluations and studies show that NAR has been politically unstable for many years. However, before coming to a final conclusion, other factors should be considered as well.

Merger Enforcement

The happenings in modern times indicate that proponents of democracy are much more willing to sacrifice their freedom for the sake of economic security and social equality, apparently unaware of the consequences. Despite the commendable reform that the world has experienced recently, the entire concept stands with the liberty of individualism, since it allows various groups to merge and claim the right of satisfaction at the expense of the citizens. In the process of claiming their right at the expense of others, they steadily enhance the power of the state which acts on their behalf. The wealth generated by industrial economies in the prevailing peaceful conditions has currently masked the immense reality. The reality could become apparently painful should the economic situation drastically deteriorate. However, the state can establish control in times of prosperity to restore social stability at the expense of freedom. Restoring the responsibility for social assistance to private or family charities would undoubtedly resolve this predicament. However, such solutions are neither desirable nor feasible. Society’s libertarian ideal where government runs nothing is quite unrealistic compared to the utopian ideal where it is in charge of running everything, (Doyran 88).

Cost/benefit and probability analyses

The economics’ fundamentals concern the decisions that the society households face daily, on how to allocate and manage its scarce resources. Demand and supply together determine the price of the goods and services of the economy, while price elasticity determines the amount of goods demanded by consumers in response to the variation in the price of goods (Klein 112). Though economics can have varying insights, it shares many points of view based on the research conducted by economists. They analyze the tendency affecting the economy and how people spend money and make decisions (Klein 114).

The emergence of financial crises and credit crunch has been found to be caused by the games played by the financial players in demand and supply markets. In particular, the crisis is thought to have originated from the recklessness of the US financial controllers in their management of the flow of funds.

Poor choice of management policies that dictate the flow of currency is partly to blame for the recent financial crisis. In addition, the problem is partly to blame for the new and complicated derivatives that control the financial markets. The rates that every market player intends to introduce into the market led to loan defaults. Ultimately, the markets are controlled by financial derivatives and markets players. A combination of these factors and activities that ensue leave the market unpredictable and what can be referred to as’ time bomb’.

Works Cited

Challet, D, M Marsili, and Y Zhang. “Modeling Market Mechanism With Minority Game.” Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 276.1-2 (2000): 284-315. Print.

Doyran, M. A. Financial crisis management and the pursuit of power American pre-

eminence and the credit crunch;. Burlington, VT, Ashgate. 2011. Print

Dhulst, R, G Rodgers, R Dhulst, and G Rodgers. “Strategy Selection In The Minority Game.” Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications 278.3-4 (2000): 579-587. Print.

Klein, Lawrence Robert. The economics of supply and demand. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1983. Print.

Lippitt, Gordon L., PetterLangseth, and Jack Mossop.Implementing organizational

change. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass, 1985. Print.