.From the Organic Vegetable Factsheet（http://cru.cahe.wsu.edu/CEPublications/EM097E/EM097E.pdf）, pick two of the 6 vegetable crops and answering the following questions:
- Use gross revenue per acre values in the Production and Sales Trends section and costs from Appendix 1 to estimate profit per acre for both crops. Do you feel like the market average or grower average value for gross revenue per acre is more relevant (there is no right answer on this)?
- Are the histograms in the Profitability and Risk section approximations to cumulative distribution functions or probability density functions?
- How does the histogram for gross revenue per acre change how you interpret the average values for gross revenue per acre reported in the Production and Sales Trends section?
- Using the cost estimates from appendix 1, what is the break-even price and break-even yield for each crop using the market average values.
- From d, based on the histograms from the Profitability and Risk section, what is the probability of observing the break-even price and yield (may need to use the red bars for price)?
22.T2.the Excel spreadsheet “CleElumMonthlySnowHistorical.xlsx” provided on Blackboard lists the total snowpack in inches near Cle Elum, WA for a day in the month of March for each year going back to the 1930’s. Given that snow accumulation is the primary determinant of whether irrigators get their full allotment it is important to understand the distribution of snow totals. Using this data set do the following tasks:
- Calculate the expected value (mean), standard deviation, and coefficient of variation for this data series.
- Construct a cumulative distribution function and probability density function (pdf approximated using a histogram) using 10 inch intervals (0, 10, 20,…etc.).
- Imagine you are a farmer that relies on irrigation, do you think the PDF or CDF is more informative for assessing curtailment (curtailment refers to when water diversions to farms are not allowed because there is not enough water from snowmelt in the summer)?
- Consider a scenario where another farmer offers you a contract that states the following. If the snowpack total for the last day of March is less than 10 inches then you will not plant your field and will transfer your water to their farm. For doing this you will be paid $500/acre for each acre that you fallow (fallow means you don’t plant). This means, however, that you cannot plant a perennial crop that generates higher profit per acre. You have determined that if you accept the contract you will plant a lower value annual crop that generates $400/acre in profit. If you refuse the contract you will plant a high value perennial crop that generates $800/acre in profit when snowpack is greater than 10 inches but only $100/acre when snowpack is less than 10 inches. The lower profit total occurs due to the fact that yields are reduced because the crop is water stressed. Using a decision tree determine whether your expected profit is higher from accepting or refusing the contract.
- Create a line chart of snowpack total over time. Do you think you are justified in assuming that this data series is identically distributed over time? Justify your answer.
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